An extremely volatile setup for wildfires is in place Wednesday in the Plains, thanks largely to the same weather system cranking up Winter Storm Selene.
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Day 1 fire weather outlook issued on Wednesday, March 23, 2016. "Extremely critical" fire weather risk area shown in pink. (NOAA/NWS/SPC)
The Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 fire weather outlook issued early Wednesday morning outlined an expansive area of "extremely critical" fire weather risk covering over 120,000 square miles from southeast New Mexico and far west Texas into parts of central Oklahoma and eastern Kansas.
One can think of this somewhat analogous to a high risk for severe thunderstorms, only this time, for conditions that could lead to rapidly spreading fires.
Namely, strong surface low pressure, accompanied by a vigorous jet-stream disturbance pivoting into the Plains, will produce wind gusts from 50-70 mph Wednesday afternoon and early evening in the central and southern Plains.
High wind warnings have been posted from New Mexico and west Texas to Kansas and southern Nebraska.
One large grass fire that started in Woods County, Oklahoma, on Tuesday continued Wednesday in Comanche County, Kansas, where a state of emergency has been declared, according to kwch.com. About 41,000 acres of land have been charred by the fire as of early Wednesday afternoon.
Grass fire in Comanche County, Kansas. (Facebook/Amber Ellis-Willey)
The strong winds on Wednesday will spread any active or new wildfires quickly in the Plains.
But it's not just wind speeds that are the concern. Winds are expected to shift in parts of the "extremely critical" fire risk area from a more southerly direction first to a west-southwest direction behind the passage of a dryline, a boundary separating dry air from moist air near the surface.
Current Winds, Gusts, High Wind Warnings
Then, with the passage of a cold front, the winds would again shift to a northwest direction.
These shifting winds could then change the direction of a wildfire's advance, always a dangerous prospect for firefighters.
Behind - to the west of - the dryline, bone-dry air with a life history over the Desert Southwest and moving downslope from higher terrain, will sweep into the southern and central Plains.
Current Dew Points
Lower (higher) dew points indicate drier (more moist) air, also depicted by progressively brown (green) contours.
The bottom line: avoid all outdoor burning through Wednesday night in the central and southern Plains. Even the burning of trash on your property could quickly become a large, out-of-control grass fire given the weather conditions in place.
Cradit By"https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/extreme-fire-danger-plains-march-23-2016
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